2011 Brownlow Medal

The Brownlow Medal is footballs night of nights, but it is also a pretty big night for punters too. Betting on the Brownlow Medal is absolutely massive business now and you can now bet on a huge range of different bet types.

With the 2011 AFL Home & Away season now complete, I thought this would be a good time to go through the leading Brownlow Medal contenders as we lead up to the big night. The 2011 Brownlow Medal will be held on Monday September 26th.

If you fancy having a punt on the Brownlow this year then hopefully the guide below will help you along your way. We recommend getting an account with Centrebet.com as they have the best betting markets for the event and new customers can also get a $200 Bonus Bet.

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Chris Judd

The Dual Brownlow Medallist and reigning winner has had an absolutely superb season. In fact most pundits see him as a near sure thing to claim a third Brownlow Medal this year and the betting odds suggest the same.

At the time of writing Juddy was $1.63 with Centrebet. I have him polling 32 votes from a count I have been doing throughout the year. I see a potential ten games where he could poll maximum votes and giving his polling history, he will go close.

The only question is will the umpires be as generous to him as last year? Last year Carlton had a few heavy losses in which Judd polled in, but will they give in to public pressure and be less generous? That is the question.

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Scott Pendlebury

Pendlebury has had a super year. He showed last year he could poll well getting 21 votes and he is the type of player who really stands out. He polled the 3 votes on five occasions and he polled 13 votes the year before.

He has performed much better this year and I see 7 games where he could get best on field honours. I have him poling about 27 votes which is very possible.

The concerns with Pendlebury are that he will have to compete with Dane Swan and Dale Thomas for votes as they have also starred this year. I just think he is the type of player who stands out, more so than Swan, and a top 3 finish looks certain.

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Marc Murphy

Murphy has had a fabulous season for the Blues and could be a real surprise packet. There is a very strong chance he could be leading at the half way mark, so be sure to look at him for any bookies who offer that market.

I have him polling about 25 votes. He was stellar in the first half of the season but a bit quieter in the second half. However his history suggests he may poll well.

He polled 11 votes in 2008 and backed that up with 15 in 2009, but polled only 5 last year. He has improved out of sight this year but will the Chris Judd factor hurt him? I don’t fancy his chances with Judd polling in a lot of the week’s that Murphy might. A genuine top 5 chance though.

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Dane Swan

Swan was the raging favourite last year, in fact he was one of the shortest favourites in history going into the count but ended up finishing third with 24 votes in a bit of a surprise. He has been good this year, but not as prolific as last which is why I don’ think he will win.

Having said that, he is an awesome vote poller on Brownlow night as history shows. In each of the past five seasons he has hit double digits, passing 20 on two occasions. He has polled in 39 of his past 108 matches, but only 11 of those have been 3 vote games.

He also had a bit of a quiet patch between Round 5 and 13 where it is likely he may not poll at all. He has come home like a freight train though and after a good start to the year, he will certainly be in contention.

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Matthew Boyd

Boyd has had a ripper season for the Dogs and has been one of their most underrated players in what has been a bit of a dog season. I see a potential 6 games where he could poll the 3 votes and his polling history is pretty decent.

Last year he polled 20 votes, 14 the year before that and 12 before that. I think he has lifted his game a notch since last year, but given the Dogs have lost plenty of games this year and missed the finals, a top 5 hope is about all he can be going for.

I have him polling about 25 votes, but maybe I have been a bit generous to him. Still, he gets plenty of the ball and there have been 9 games this year where he has gotten 35+ disposals. I think he is a definite danger for anyone who has placed top 3 or top 5 bets.

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Adam Goodes

Goodes is all the rage at the moment. He has been backed into second favouritism with most betting agency on the back of a super end to the year. I think a lot of that is hype though and his chances of winning aren’t as good as many make out.

He started the year well with two potential 3 votes games in the opening three weeks. He has also come home like a freight train with five possible 3 vote games in his past six. It is the middle that could lead him unstuck though, from Round 9 to Round 17 he may poll in only one game.

He is a dual Brownlow Medallist though and has polled double digits in each of the past 5 season, surpassing 20 votes in three of those. I have him polling 24 votes this year and I cannot see him passing Judd or Pendlebury.

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Other Chances

The players listed above are the only ones I see challenging for the Brownlow this year. Gary Ablett has had a very impressive year which could see him get 20 odd votes. His issue is that the Suns have been hammered most weeks, but he has stood out.

Nick Dal Santo has impressed for St Kilda and is a proven vote getter. Not sure he will get over 20 votes but he will be in the mix. Matthew Priddis and Dean Cox of West Coast have had standout seasons and will take plenty of votes off each other.

Next in line would be guys like Brent Moloney of Melbourne, Scott Thompson of Adelaide and Joel Selwood of Geelong. Buddy Franklin at Hawthorn may also poll a few votes too.

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Team By Team Previews

Helpful as we are here at FreeBet.com.au we have previewed each of the 17 AFL clubs chances at the Brownlow Medal. We have run through the leading contenders at each. Some are very short favourites, so online bookie IASbet.com have special markets opened which excludes the short favourites which is very handy!

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