This certainly has the looks of a high class renewal, with what I regard as one of the best horses currently in the World – Atlantic Jewel, going for her seventh consecutive win. She’s been absolutely imperious so far, and has had a nice prep into this, with nothing more than a racecourse gallop two weeks ago in winning the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes by four lengths. She’s going up against the boys for the first time, but that’s unlikely to stop her winning this pretty easily.

Rain Affair has 11 wins from his 14 starts, and finished a creditable close second in the TJ Smith two weeks ago (the time for that was slightly quicker than Atlantic Jewel over the same course and distance on the same day). He’s giving the younger filly 4.5kg here though, and that’s just too much to expect him to overturn.

The Pentire gelding King Mufhasa is used to running in massive Group 1 events (incredibly, 18 of his last 20 starts have been at the top level, with a record of 7-2-1) and he’s top class. It’s arguable that he could actually pose more of a threat to Atlantic Jewel here, but again it’s tough to see him beating the filly.

The first thing to say about this select field of 8, is that they have amassed an amazing $19 million plus in prize money over their careers. Rarely will we see such a select and compact field. The market is headed by Gai Waterhouse’s More Joyous, who was en emphatic winner of the Doncaster Mile last week, and comes here in probably the best form of her career. She’s a deserved favourite, although perhaps a little short at $2.50. This looks like a bit of a fact finding mission before sending her to the Cox Plate later in the year.

Manighar has been an absolute revelation since joining the Moody stable, winning the Australian Cup (beating Americain), The Ranvet (beating Rangirangdoo) and The BMW (beating Americain again) in consecutive starts. On this form, it certainly appears he should be a shorter price than Americain. The ex-French galloper has had a decent prep, with a 3rd and 2nd, and will come here in good fettle with every chance of a big run.

Jimmy Choux has been slightly disappointing since his 2nd in the Cox Plate last year, finishing 4th in the Emirates (behind Secret Admirer) – and following that with poor efforts in the Hong Kong Mile and the Easter Handicap over the Tasman. He’ll need to find something special to win this.

Jim Conlan’s Rekindled Interest has a decent record over this distance, and will be stepping up after a good 2nd behind Metal Bender in the George Ryder over 1,500m. He has a live chance of creating a shock here. Rangirangdoo needs the track a lot softer and will probably finish midfield.

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“The feature event of the day is the 3200 metre Sydney Cup. The Chris Waller trained Permit is currently the favourite at $3.60 after an impressive win in the Group 2 Chairmans Handicap. Second line of betting sees Niwot at $4.40 after some impressive finishes in his last 2 starts. It is a very open race though with other chances coming in the form of former Melbourne Cup winner Efficient ($12), the 2 Gai runners Once Were Wild ($26) & Older Than Time ($9) and the Irish import Drunken Sailor ($7.50) coming off a very competitive 3rd in the BMW

The Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes will see some of the countr y’s best weight for age horses take battle over the 2000 metres. Fresh for her Doncaster success More Joyous ($2.40) looks to step up past the mile in what owner John Singleton classes as a genuine Cox Plate trial, in doing so she will have to beat the carnival’s current WFA champion and Group 1 dominating Manighar ($4.20). David Hayes will be hoping Craig Williams can add his magic touch to 2010 Melbourne Cup winner Amercain ($4) after Gerald Mosse’s less than impressive ride in the BMW.”

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De Luca added “Group 1 racing also takes place at Morphettville as the champion mare Black Caviar ($1.04) looks to make it 20 wins from 20 starts in the Robert Sangster Stakes in her lead-up to the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot. As most trainers & owners have been scared off taking on the unbeaten superstar she will see another weakened field, with the only (if any) competition to come from last year’s Goodwood winner Lone Rock ($17).”

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Fremantle gained even more credibility with a rare Melbourne win, showing a harder edge that Ross Lyon has brought to the squad. It’s sure to be an intriguing match at Paterson’s Stadium, which will certainly shed more light on where these two teams stand.

There is something wrong with Carlton if they don’t come out all guns blazing on Friday night, and I’m pretty sure they will. They were worried out of it a bit last week in a tired looking effort, and coach Brett Ratten will surely have hammered home some home truths this week.

Carlton benefit from the return of Andrew Walker, who is recovered from an injury that’s kept him out since the second round of the NAB Cup. He’ll provide a much needed spark inside the attacking 50.

Our Prediction: Carlton by 2 points.

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The undefeated mare has also been priced at $1.12 for the Goodwood Handicap two weeks later.

“At level weights against mares she is virtually unbeatable. She may start even shorter,” sportsbet.com.au’s Ben Hawes said.

“She will be slightly longer in the Goodwood as she will carry the maximum top weight but you’d think she’d simply be too good yet again.”

Markets courtesy of sportsbet.com.au

• $1.04 - Black Caviar to win the 1200m Morphettville Classic
• $1.12 - Black Caviar to win the Goodwood Handicap

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This has seen the Bombers firm from $2.15 to $2.08, while Collingwood have drifted from $1.66 to $1.77.

“After Essendon’s win over Carlton support has been strong for them to pull off another upset this week. There has been good money for both teams, but at the moment the Bombers seem to be the one they want,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

AFL Premiership betting – Round 5

$1.77   Collingwood               (out from $1.66)
$2.05   Essendon                     (in from $2.15)

$1.80   Carlton                       (in from $1.83)
$2.00   Fremantle                   (out from $1.95)

$1.02   Western Bulldogs      (steady)
$13      GWS                            (in from $15)

$1.01   North Melbourne      (steady)
$16      Gold Coast                   (out from $15)

$1.11   St Kilda                       (in from $1.13)
$6.50   Melbourne                  (out from $5.80)

$1.32   Geelong                      (out from $1.30)
$3.40   Brisbane                      (in from $3.50)

$1.40   Hawthorn                   (out from $1.36)
$2.95   Sydney                         (in from $3.10)

$1.33   West Coast                 (in from $1.36)
$3.30   Richmond                    (out from $3.10)

$1.53   Adelaide                     (steady)
$2.50   Port Adelaide              (steady)

Anzac Day Medalist

$5.50   Scott Pendlebury      (steady)
$6.50   Jobe Watson                (steady)
$6.50   Dane Swan                  (steady)
$8.00   Brent Stanton              (out from $7.50)
$12      Paddy Ryder                (out from $11)
$14      Travis Cloke                (steady)
$14      Heath Hocking            (out from $12)
$16      Sharrod Wellingham   (steady)
$16      Dayne Beams              (out from $15)
$16      Steele Sidebottom       (steady)
$17      Stewart Crameri         (steady)

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Carlton are next in the market at $5.00 despite the weekend’s upset loss to Essendon, while the West Coast Eagles have been the big movers in from $15 at the start of the season to now $5.50.

Geelong have been steady at $6.50 while Collingwood continue to slide, out from $6.50 to $7.00.

The Sydney Swans have also caught the attention of punters, into $17 from $21.

“Hawthorn have dropped two games but they have only been by a few points and against quality opposition. They still hold more money to win than anyone else so they continue to be flag favourites, at least for the time being,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Shaun Anderson.

“Strong interest has come for the Eagles over the past few weeks and according to the punters, there is plenty of teams in with a chance to win it.”

Market courtesy of sportsbet.com.au
AFL Premiership betting
Prices in brackets from Monday 16th April
$4.00   Hawthorn                   (steady)                                                                             
$5.00   Carlton                        (out from $4.75)
$5.50   West Coast                  (in from $6.50)
$6.50   Geelong                       (out from $6.00)
$7.00   Collingwood                (out from $6.50)                                                            
$17      Fremantle                   (in from $26)
$17      Sydney                         (in from $21)                                                                             
$26      Adelaide                      (steady)
$34      Essendon                     (in from $67)                                                                             
$41      St Kilda                        (out from $34)                                                            
$51      North Melbourne        (out from $41)
$151    Richmond                   (steady)
$251    Port Adelaide              (steady)
$251    Western Bulldogs       (steady)                                                            
$501    Melbourne                  (steady)
$501    Brisbane                      (steady)
$1001  Gold Coast                   (steady)                                                            
$2001  GWS                            (steady)

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The withdrawals of both Heath Shaw and Dale Thomas from the Collingwood squad to play Port Adelaide this week has seen a dramatic line move in a match the Pies need to win to keep their Top 4 prospects alive. After an opening price of $1.09 and a line of -41.5, last years grand finalists are now $1.24 and 27 point favourites.

Brisbane v Gold Coast

The return of Simon Black to the Brisbane Lions has seen Brisbane firm from $1.39 to $1.32 (line has moved out from -17.5 to -21.5), yet punters are still all over the Ablett-led Suns in the third installment of the Q-clash and Luxbet are more than happy to let the punters go that way.

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The sun finally came out in Sydney today but the rain continued in northern NSW to see the Casino meeting postponed to another day. In the betting ring the Luxbet bookies tried to dodge a few big firmers.

In Geelong Race 2 all the early mail revolved around the #4 Sunderaad ($1.6). Some sizeable bets saw the bookies death riding it all the way and were quite happy to see the favourite paddle for fourth as Buratti ($4.4) claimed top honours to give the bookies an early result.

Ipswich Race 4 saw the Eagle Farm last start runner Neomagic firm off the map as it’s opening quote of $5 was snapped up to see it start favourite at $2.40. The gelding kicked away early and ended up winning quite convincingly as the punters collected the cash.

Scone Racing saw another big firmer. In Race 7 the last start Canterbury place getter Magondo had it’ s opening price of $6.50 slashed into $3.50. The bookies were able to dodge most of the damage and collect some decent money out of the Paul Messara trained first starter Dark Mojo. Magondo was first past the post to see the Luxbet walk away with a small win.

Where’s the Money?

Looking to tomorrow, three group one races at Randwick and three chances to get a $100 Bonus bet if you get on the winner of all three races. Here is what the Luxbet punters are backing:

Randwick Race 2 #3 Meidung $2,000 @ $7
Randwick Race 6 #1 Hawk Island $2,000 @ $7.50
Randwick Race 8 #7 Border Rebel $1,000 @ $13
Randwick Race 8 #11 Elite Falls $1,000 @ $11
Randwick Race 9 #16 Adroitly $1,000 @ $19

Caulfield Race 3 #7 Enzed Girl $1,000 @ $18
Caulfield Race 8 #14 Rescue Mission $1,500 @ $8

Eagle Farm Race 7 #6 Hidden Jewel $4,000 @ $4.60
Eagle Farm Race 8 #11 Streets Away $1,500 @ $9.50

Morphettville Race 8 #8 Big Chill $4,000 @ $3.80

Ascot Race 8 #7 Honest Lies $1,000 @ $12

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Anthony Cummings

Tommy Berry

John O’Shea

Gai Waterhouse

Brenton Avdulla

Good luck in your punting on Doncaster Mile day!

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